IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.4	#97
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.6	#323
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#159

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.0	#55

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.1%	1.8%	0.4%
Top 6 Seed	2.2%	3.7%	0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.8%	22.8%	9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	11.7%	17.5%	6.2%
Average Seed	9.4	9.2	9.9

.500 or above	54.2%	68.1%	40.6%
.500 or above in Conference	51.4%	60.5%	42.5%
Conference Champion	4.4%	6.3%	2.6%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	2.7%	6.2%

First Four	2.4%	3.5%	1.4%
First Round	14.4%	20.7%	8.2%
Second Round	6.4%	9.6%	3.3%
Sweet Sixteen	2.0%	3.0%	1.0%
Elite Eight	0.7%	1.2%	0.3%
Final Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Neutral) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 2	3 - 5	5 - 10
Quad 3	5 - 3	10 - 13
Quad 4	4 - 0	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	93	Rhode Island	L	68-69	49%
Nov 29, 2020	56	Virginia Tech	L	61-65	36%
Dec 01, 2020	128	Massachusetts	W	70-67	62%
Dec 04, 2020	318	Florida A&M	W	75-56	96%
Dec 08, 2020	250	Stetson	W	69-55	89%
Dec 12, 2020	30	LSU	L	68-75	28%
Dec 16, 2020	55	@ Cincinnati	L	62-69	27%
Dec 22, 2020	77	Wichita St.	W	67-66	53%
Dec 29, 2020	40	@ Memphis	L	65-74	23%
Jan 02, 2021	111	Central Florida	W	67-63	64%
Jan 06, 2021	98	Tulsa	W	64-61	60%
Jan 09, 2021	151	@ East Carolina	W	69-67	55%
Jan 14, 2021	18	Houston	L	61-67	32%
Jan 20, 2021	151	East Carolina	W	72-64	73%
Jan 24, 2021	77	@ Wichita St.	L	64-69	34%
Jan 27, 2021	145	Temple	W	70-63	73%
Jan 30, 2021	55	Cincinnati	L	65-66	46%
Feb 03, 2021	98	@ Tulsa	L	61-64	41%
Feb 06, 2021	65	@ SMU	L	62-68	30%
Feb 13, 2021	210	Tulane	W	72-60	84%
Feb 17, 2021	111	@ Central Florida	L	64-66	44%
Feb 20, 2021	65	SMU	L	65-66	48%
Feb 24, 2021	145	@ Temple	W	67-66	54%
Feb 28, 2021	18	@ Houston	L	58-70	17%
Mar 03, 2021	40	Memphis	L	68-71	43%
Mar 05, 2021	210	@ Tulane	W	69-63	67%
Projected Record						13 - 13	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0		4.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.2	2.1	2.2	1.1	0.3	0.0				7.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.0	3.6	2.7	0.8	0.1	0.0					9.8	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	2.8	4.1	2.5	0.5	0.0							11.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.3	4.0	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.0								12.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	1.9	4.7	4.4	1.7	0.3										13.3	6th
7th						0.1	0.6	2.5	4.9	4.0	1.2	0.2	0.0										13.5	7th
8th					0.2	0.8	2.6	4.3	2.8	0.8	0.1	0.0											11.6	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	1.2	2.5	2.8	1.7	0.4	0.0													8.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.1	1.6	1.5	0.6	0.2															5.3	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0																2.4	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	0.9	2.0	3.3	5.1	6.7	9.0	10.3	10.9	10.7	9.9	8.9	7.7	5.7	3.8	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	94.5%	0.5		0.5	0.0
17-3	77.7%	1.1		0.8	0.2	0.0
16-4	51.2%	1.2		0.8	0.4	0.1
15-5	22.2%	0.8		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
14-6	6.8%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0		0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.4%	4.4		2.7	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		100.0%	58.7%	41.3%	2.4		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0												100.0%
19-1	0.2%		100.0%	46.1%	53.9%	3.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0										100.0%
18-2	0.6%		100.0%	44.1%	55.9%	4.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
17-3	1.4%		97.0%	35.5%	61.5%	6.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.0		95.3%
16-4	2.4%		92.3%	21.1%	71.1%	8.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		90.2%
15-5	3.8%		76.3%	16.9%	59.4%	9.2		0.0			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.0				0.9		71.5%
14-6	5.7%		56.4%	12.4%	44.0%	10.1						0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.1				2.5		50.2%
13-7	7.7%		34.9%	9.2%	25.8%	10.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.1				5.0		28.4%
12-8	8.9%		14.5%	4.1%	10.4%	11.3									0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0			7.6		10.8%
11-9	9.9%		6.5%	3.3%	3.2%	11.7										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		9.2		3.3%
10-10	10.7%		3.0%	2.4%	0.6%	12.2											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		10.4		0.6%
9-11	10.9%		1.7%	1.7%	0.0%	12.8												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.7		0.0%
8-12	10.3%		0.7%	0.7%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.2
7-13	9.0%		0.3%	0.3%		14.2													0.0		0.0		0.0	9.0
6-14	6.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
5-15	5.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
4-16	3.3%																							3.3
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		15.8%	4.7%	11.1%	9.4		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6	1.0	1.6	1.9	2.7	3.0	2.6	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	84.2		11.7%